This is the price target hit rate by bank for the 27 firms with the most scored targets in AnaChart’s clean set: 120K targets, each marked reached or not, with the days it took. Within twelve months of issue, Evercore reached 75.9% of its targets and National Bank Financial 56.7%.
Each firm here has at least 1,500 targets in the set. Together they hold 120,252 of the 150,153 targets in it, on 1,112 stocks: US stocks in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 with no split in the record, plus Canadian and German stocks. Targets issued in the twelve months before the cutoff are left out, so every target had at least a year. Firm names are as recorded. Credit Suisse’s record ends in September 2023, after its takeover by UBS.
Targets reached within a year, firm by firm
With no time limit, every firm on the list reached between 79.5% and 90.0% of its targets. Credit Suisse has the highest share at any time, 90.0%, and sits 19th on the twelve month measure at 66.7%. Its targets are older than most, with a median issue year of 2020 against 2022 for Morgan Stanley, so they have had more time to get there. The twelve month share puts every firm on the same clock.
How far each firm’s targets sat from the price
Distance is the target against the closing price on the day it was published. A target of $110 on a $100 stock is 10% above. The table gives each firm’s median distance next to its results.
On a phone, swipe the table sideways to see every column.
| Firm | Targets | Stocks | Median distance | Reached within 12 months | Reached any time | Median days (reached only) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore | 2,205 | 261 | +10.9% | 75.9% | 88.3% | 82 |
| Baird | 2,716 | 199 | +12.1% | 74.9% | 89.9% | 98 |
| Wells Fargo | 5,382 | 315 | +11.5% | 71.9% | 87.9% | 88 |
| BofA Securities | 4,581 | 401 | +12.9% | 70.1% | 88.3% | 106 |
| Citi | 6,333 | 442 | +13.8% | 69.8% | 88.7% | 105 |
| Stifel | 5,048 | 516 | +14.8% | 68.6% | 86.5% | 101 |
| Deutsche Bank | 6,493 | 444 | +11.1% | 68.6% | 87.9% | 91 |
| Mizuho | 3,012 | 178 | +12.0% | 68.5% | 85.5% | 90 |
| UBS | 6,098 | 451 | +11.8% | 68.3% | 84.6% | 94 |
| Morgan Stanley | 10,701 | 450 | +10.0% | 68.2% | 87.4% | 89 |
| BMO | 4,323 | 395 | +11.2% | 68.2% | 85.5% | 92 |
| KeyBanc | 2,039 | 149 | +14.6% | 68.0% | 87.9% | 123 |
| Goldman Sachs | 4,286 | 448 | +12.1% | 67.8% | 85.2% | 96 |
| Oppenheimer | 2,499 | 167 | +15.3% | 67.6% | 88.7% | 140 |
| Piper Sandler | 3,858 | 211 | +13.9% | 67.2% | 86.3% | 103 |
| Barclays | 8,104 | 661 | +12.2% | 67.1% | 85.3% | 95 |
| JPMorgan | 6,147 | 467 | +11.9% | 67.0% | 83.6% | 91 |
| RBC | 6,472 | 613 | +13.1% | 66.9% | 84.7% | 104 |
| Credit Suisse | 4,496 | 426 | +11.5% | 66.7% | 90.0% | 112 |
| Truist | 2,962 | 209 | +13.6% | 66.7% | 84.8% | 119 |
| TD Cowen | 4,868 | 547 | +15.8% | 64.9% | 86.0% | 126 |
| Jefferies | 4,742 | 450 | +15.2% | 64.3% | 84.5% | 126 |
| Raymond James | 3,447 | 461 | +17.7% | 61.0% | 83.6% | 140 |
| CIBC | 2,057 | 327 | +16.9% | 60.8% | 80.6% | 117 |
| Scotiabank | 2,456 | 366 | +16.7% | 59.9% | 81.7% | 128 |
| Canaccord | 2,748 | 424 | +18.7% | 57.8% | 79.5% | 134 |
| National Bank Financial | 2,179 | 328 | +22.5% | 56.7% | 82.0% | 163 |
Eight firms had a median distance above 15%. Seven of them reached fewer than 66% of their targets within a year, and Oppenheimer, at 67.6%, is the eighth. The eight firms with medians under 12% all reached at least 66.7%. Across the 27 firms, the correlation between median distance and the twelve month share is −0.82.
The Canadian firms sit at the far end of that spread. National Bank Financial, Canaccord, Scotiabank and CIBC published most of their targets on Canadian stocks, with medians of 16% to 23% above the price. Their US peers published mostly on large US stocks, closer to the price.
Same distance, different order
To hold distance fixed, take the targets set 10 to 20% above the price on the day. That leaves 37,152 targets across the same 27 firms. The range runs from 62.5% (Scotiabank) to 76.1% (Baird) reached within a year, and the order moves.
Canaccord moves from 26th to 9th, at 70.5% within a year on 650 targets in the band. National Bank Financial moves from 27th to 24th. Evercore goes the other way, from first to 5th, and Wells Fargo from 3rd to 12th. Credit Suisse moves from 19th to 4th. Baird is at or near the top on both measures: 74.9% on all targets and 76.1% in the band.
Canadian and US stocks at the same firm
Eight of the firms have at least 300 targets on both Canadian and US stocks. At all eight, a smaller share of the Canadian targets was reached within a year. At seven, the Canadian targets also sat further from the price. Credit Suisse is the exception: its Canadian median was 10.9% above the price against 11.7% on US stocks, and 59.7% of its Canadian targets were reached within a year against 67.9%.
On a phone, swipe the table sideways to see every column.
| Firm | Canadian targets | Median distance | Within 12 months | US targets | Median distance | Within 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Suisse | 315 | +10.9% | 59.7% | 3,935 | +11.7% | 67.9% |
| Barclays | 1,555 | +16.6% | 60.9% | 6,539 | +11.1% | 68.6% |
| Canaccord | 1,859 | +22.9% | 53.7% | 889 | +14.4% | 66.1% |
| Raymond James | 1,200 | +25.25% | 53.1% | 2,247 | +16% | 65.2% |
| RBC | 1,585 | +18.8% | 58.7% | 4,655 | +11.7% | 69.9% |
| Scotiabank | 1,916 | +18.9% | 57.3% | 536 | +9.7% | 69.0% |
| Stifel | 983 | +31.6% | 52.3% | 3,960 | +12.7% | 73.0% |
| TD Cowen | 1,724 | +19.4% | 58.6% | 3,135 | +14.3% | 68.4% |
Stifel shows the widest gap: a median of 31.6% above the price on its Canadian targets, 52.3% reached within a year, against 12.7% and 73.0% on its US targets.
Inside one firm, the analysts differ more than the firms do
A firm’s share is an average over its analysts. Morgan Stanley has 29 analysts with 100 or more targets in this set. Their twelve month shares run from 29.5% to 82.5%, a wider spread than the 19.1 points that separate all 27 firms.
On a phone, swipe the table sideways to see every column.
| Morgan Stanley analyst | Targets | Median distance | Within 12 months | Any time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Dally | 114 | +5.6% | 82.5% | 96.5% |
| Joseph Moore | 415 | +7.1% | 79.5% | 94.7% |
| Betsy Graseck | 516 | +15.15% | 64.0% | 94.0% |
| Adam Jonas | 121 | +16.6% | 57.0% | 100% |
| Ravi Shanker | 200 | −8.7% | 29.5% | 66.5% |
Adam Jonas’s 121 targets on these stocks were all reached in the end, and 57.0% of them within a year. Ravi Shanker’s median target sat 8.7% below the price on the day, and 29.5% of his targets were reached within a year. A firm-level number cannot show either record.
Method
A target counts as reached when the stock’s intraday high (low, for a target below the price) touched it on the issue day or any later trading day up to 7 September 2026. Direction is the target against the close on the issue date. “Any time” has no time limit. “Within 12 months” counts targets reached within 365 calendar days. Days are calendar days from issue to the first touch.
The set is the one used in how often analyst price targets get hit: 150,153 targets on 369 US stocks that are in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 today and never split in the record, 583 Canadian and 184 German stocks. Stocks that left those indexes or delisted are not in the US group. Canadian and German prices are split-adjusted. A firm’s count includes every analyst who published under its name. Firms are matched by AnaChart’s broker identifier, so a renamed firm stays one firm.
Data cutoff: prices to 7 September 2026. Published 28 October 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Which bank has the most accurate price targets?
It depends on the clock and on how far out the targets were set. Within twelve months, Evercore reached 75.9% of its 2,205 targets and Baird 74.9% of 2,716. Holding distance at 10 to 20% above the price, Baird was first at 76.1% and Evercore 5th.
Why are the Canadian banks lower on the list?
On these stocks their targets also sat further from the price. National Bank Financial’s median target was 22.5% above the close on the day, against 10.9% at Evercore. In the 10 to 20% band, National Bank Financial reached 66.0% within a year (24th of 27) and Canaccord 70.5% (9th).
Does a 90% hit rate mean the analyst was right?
It means the stock traded at the target at some point. Credit Suisse reached 90.0% of its targets with no time limit and 66.7% within a year. The days column and the twelve month share show how long that took.
Can I see the targets behind a firm’s number?
Yes, per stock. Each $29 file holds every target on one stock with the analyst, the firm, the date, the distance, whether it was reached and the days it took. Adam Jonas’s and Joseph Moore’s rows are in the files for the stocks they cover.
Get the rows behind it
Every target on a stock is a $29 CSV, one stock per file, no subscription: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 names plus 607 Canadian and 184 German stocks. The free Apple file shows the layout. Each stock also has a page on data.anachart.store with its analysts and their results.